Publications & Research Projects

Publications Working Papers Non-Academic Writing Research by Topic

Book Project

  • "Dynamic Democracy: Citizens, Politicians, and Policymaking in the American States" (with Devin Caughey)
    Forthcoming at University of Chicago Press.
    Table of Contents | Conclusion
  • Publications


  • "Using Screeners to Measure Respondent Attention on Self-Administered Surveys: Which Items and How Many?" Political Science Research and Methods. 9(2): 430–437. (with Adam Berinsky, Michele Margolis, and Mike Sances)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • 2020

  • "The Impact of Partisan Gerrymandering on Political Parties." Legislative Studies Quarterly. 45(4): 609-643. (with Nicholas Stephanopoulos)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "A preference for constant costs." Nature Climate Change. News & Views. Review of "Constant carbon pricing increases support for climate action compared to ramping up costs over time." Volume 10, p. 978–979.
  • "Fatalities from COVID-19 are reducing Americans' support for Republicans at every level of federal office." Science Advances. (with Lynn Vavreck and Ryan Baxter-King)
    Abstract | Summary in NYT Upshot | Replication Data
  • "Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections." American Political Science Review. 114(3): 660-676. (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Politics in Forgotten Governments: The Partisan Composition of County Legislatures and County Fiscal Policies." Journal of Politics. 82(2): 460-475. (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "On the Representativeness of Primary Electorates." British Journal of Political Science. 50(2): 677-685. (with John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Elections and Parties in Environmental Politics." Handbook on U.S. Environmental Policy, ed. David Konisky. (with Parrish Bergquist)
    Abstract | Chapter | Link to Book
  • "Reforming Baltimore's Mayoral Elections." Policy Report for the Abell Foundation.
  • 2019

  • "Geography, Uncertainty, and Polarization." Political Science Research and Methods. 7(4): 775-794. (with Nolan McCarty, Jonathan Rodden, Boris Shor, and Chris Tausanovitch)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981--2016." American Political Science Review. 113(3): 674-693. (with Devin Caughey and Tom O'Grady)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data | Data on European Ideology
  • "Local Elections and Representation in the United States." Annual Review of Political Science. 22(1): 461-479.
    Abstract | Paper
  • "Does Global Warming Increase Public Concern About Climate Change?" Journal of Politics. 81(2): 686-691. (with Parrish Bergquist)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Public Opinion in Subnational Politics." Journal of Politics. 81(1): 352-363. (with Devin Caughey)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • 2018

  • "The Ideological Nationalization of Partisan Subconstituencies in the American States." Public Choice. July, 2018. 187(1-2):133-151. (with Devin Caughey and James Dunham)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936-2014." American Political Science Review. May, 2018. 112(2): 249-266. (with Devin Caughey)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data | Policy and Opinion Estimates
    Winner of the award for best paper on State Politics & Policy at the 2014 American Political Science Conference.
  • "Spatial Variation in Messaging Effects." Nature Climate Change. News & Views. Review of "Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically." April, 2018.
  • "Does the Ideological Proximity Between Candidates and Voters Affect Voting in U.S. House Elections?" Political Behavior. March, 2018. 40(1): 223-245. (with Chris Tausanovitch)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Latent Constructs in Public Opinion."Oxford Handbook on Polling and Polling Methods. R. Michael Alvarez and Lonna Atkeson, ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Link to Book | Chapter
  • 2017

  • "Partisan Gerrymandering and the Political Process: Effects on Roll-Call Voting and State Policies." Election Law Journal. December, 2017. 16(4): 453-469. (with Devin Caughey and Chris Tausanovitch)
    Abstract | Paper
  • "Incremental Democracy: the Policy Effects of Partisan Control of State Government." Journal of Politics. October, 2017. 79:4 (1342-1358) (with Devin Caughey and Yiqing Xu)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Renewable energy policy design and framing influence public support in the United States." Nature Energy July, 2017. (with Leah Stokes)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "Estimating Candidates' Political Orientation in a Polarized Congress." Political Analysis. Spring, 2017. 25(2). (with Chris Tausanovitch).
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • 2016

  • "The Dynamics of State Policy Liberalism, 1936-2014." American Journal of Political Science. October, 2016. 60(4): 899-913 (with Devin Caughey).
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data | Media coverage in The Boston Globe
    Winner of the APSA award for the best journal article on state politics in 2016.
  • "Mayoral Partisanship and Municipal Fiscal Policy" Journal of Politics. October, 2016. 78(4): 1124-1138 (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner).
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data
  • "The Application of Big Data in Surveys to the Study of Elections, Public Opinion, and Representation." 2016. Computational Social Science: Discovery and Prediction. R. Michael Alvarez, ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Link to Book | Chapter
  • 2015

  • "Dynamic Estimation of Latent Public Opinion Using a Hierarchical Group-Level IRT Model." Political Analysis. Spring, 2015. 23(2). (with Devin Caughey).
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data | dgo R Package | Example vignettes
  • 2014

  • "Representation in Municipal Government." American Political Science Review. August, 2014. 108(3). (with Chris Tausanovitch)
    Abstract | Paper | Replication Data | Media coverage in The Economist, USA Today, C-Span's Washington Journal, ...
  • 2013

  • "Measuring Constituent Policy Preferences in Congress, State Legislatures and Cities". Journal of Politics. April 2013. 75(2). (with Chris Tausanovitch).
    Abstract | Paper | Online Appendix A | Online Appendix B | Policy Preference Estimates
  • 2012

  • "How Should We Measure District-Level Public Opinion on Individual Issues?" Journal of Politics. January 2012. 74(1). (with Jonathan Rodden).
    Abstract | Paper | Online Appendix | Replication Data
  • "The Political Economy of Expropriation and Privatization of National Oil Companies." 2012. Oil and Governance: State-Owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply. David G. Victor, David Hults, and Mark thurber, eds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Abstract | Link
  • "Democratization and Countermajoritarian Institutions: the Role of Power and Constitutional Design In Self-Enforcing Democracy." 2012. Comparative Constitutional Law and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (with Susan Alberts and Barry R. Weingast).
    Abstract | Link
  • 2011

  • "Business as Usual? Analyzing the Doctrinal Development of Environmental Standing Doctrine since 1976." Summer 2011. Harvard Law and Policy Review. Volume 5.2 (with Gregory Wannier).
    Abstract | Paper
  • Papers Under Review

  • "The Effect of Television Advertising in United States Elections" (with John Sides and Lynn Vavreck)
    Invited to Revise and Resubmit at the American Political Science Review.
    Abstract | Paper
  • "The Effect of Fox News Channel on U.S. Elections: 2000-2020" (with Elliott Ash, Sergio Galletta, and Matteo Pinna)
    Abstract | Paper
  • "Partisan Polarization in the Mass Public in South Korea and the United States"
  • Ongoing and Early Stage Projects

  • How Partisanship in Cities Influences Housing Policy" (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and Daniel Jones)
  • "Moderates" (with Anthony Fowler, Seth Hill, Jeff Lewis, Chris Tausanovitch, Lynn Vavreck)
    Abstract | Paper
  • "Inequalities in Participation, Voting, and Representation in Local Governments" (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner and John Sides)
    (Funded by the Russell Sage Foundation)
  • "When Mass Opinion Goes to the Ballot Box: A National Assessment of State Level Issue Opinion and Ballot Initiative Results" (with Jonathan Robinson and John Sides)
  • "Electoral Accountability for Ideological Extremism in American Elections" (with Devin Caughey)
    Abstract | Paper
  • A New Database of Local Legislative and Executive Elections
    (Funded by the MIT Election Lab and the Hewlett Foundation)
    Abstract | Announcement
  • Non-Academic Articles

  • TV ads still win elections. And Democrats are buying a lot more of them. Washington Post. October 28, 2020. (with John Sides and Lynn Vavreck)
  • How Local Covid Deaths Are Affecting Vote Choice. New York Times. July 28, 2020. (with Lynn Vavreck)
  • Allowing Only Older Americans to Vote by Mail Leads to Severe Racial Disparities. Election Law Blog. July 1, 2020.
  • A coronavirus recession would hurt all kinds of Republican candidates -- not just Trump. Washington Post, Monkey Cage. March 18, 2020. (with Justin de Benedictis-Kessner)
  • The Supreme Court is deciding a gerrymandering case. Here’s the social science that the justices need to know. Washington Post, Monkey Cage. June 1, 2019.
  • New research shows just how badly a citizenship question would hurt the 2020 Census. Washington Post, Monkey Cage. April 22, 2019. (with Matt Barreto, Matthew A. Baum, Bryce J. Dietrich, Rebecca Goldstein, and Maya Sen)
  • G.O.P. Senators Might Not Realize It, but Not One State Supports A.H.C.A. New York Times. June 14, 2017. (with David Broockman)
    Methods Appendix
  • Expert Reports

    Partisan Gerrymandering

  • League of Women Voters of Michigan v. Benson (2018-2019): "An Evaluation of the Partisan Bias in Michigan’s 2011 Districting Plan and its Effects on Representation in Congress and State Government"
    Media coverage in Detroit News, Michigan Live, Bridge Michigan
  • Ohio A. Philip Randolph Inst. v. Householder (2018-2019): "An Evaluation of the Partisan Bias in Ohio’s 2011 Congressional Districting Plan and its Effects on Representation in Congress"
    Media coverage in NY Times
  • League of Women Voters v. Pennsylvania General Assembly (2017-2018): "An Evaluation of the Partisan Bias in Pennsylvania’s Congressional District Plan and its Effects on Representation in Congress"
    Expert Report | Media coverage in Wired
  • Census

  • New York v. Trump; (2020): "The Effect of Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the Census on Congressional Apportionment"
    Media coverage in New York Times
  • Common Cause v. Trump (2020): "The Effect of Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the Census on Congressional Apportionment"
    Expert Declaration
  • La Union Del Pueblo Entero (LUPE) (2020): "The Effect of Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the Census on Congressional Apportionment"
  • New York Immigration Coalition v. US Dept of Commerce and State of NY v. US Dept of Commerce (2018): "The Effect of an Undercount on the Census due to a Citizenship Question on Population Counts, Apportionment, and the Distribution of Political Power in America"
    Media coverage in NPR, Associated Press
  • Dormant Projects

  • "Responsiveness and Election Proximity in the United States Senate"
    Abstract | Paper
  • "How Should We Choose Survey Questions to Measure Citizens' Policy Preferences?" (with Chris Tausanovitch).
    Abstract | Paper